ANALYSIS – With the years-long media and Democrat demonizing of the GOP, especially the Trump-supporting MAGA voters culminated by Joe Biden’s ‘semi-fascist remarks,’ and his dark ‘democracy’ speech, many conservative Republicans have apparently gone to ground avoiding identification, even from pollsters.
These ‘submerged’ MAGA voters will be significantly undercounted in polls leading up to the November election, and beyond.
This according to Robert C. Cahaly of the highly respected Trafalgar Group.
In a series of tweets, Cahaly stated that:
The 2022 Republican turnout will likely be higher than any of the polls or models are showing. All polls (including ours) will understate the impact of these ‘submerged voters.
Cahaly noted Biden’s demonization of MAGA Republicans has effectively put MAGA voters into hiding publicly and from pollsters.
… The Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
I call this new group ‘submerged voters. They aren’t putting stickers on their cars, signs in their yards, posting their opinions, or even answering polls.
At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate.
But as Cahaly notes, it’s not just this election cycle that Trump voters are hiding from view:
In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘deplorables’ and other unflattering names. This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling flowing the election.
In 2020 people who supported Trump or espoused conservative values out of step with ‘Woke’ culture found themselves being ‘canceled’ or ‘doxed. This led to ‘hidden voters’ that ‘most’ polling under counted, therefore Trump support in key battleground states exceeded expectations.
Meanwhile, one recent poll shows that a majority of voters believe that rather than being the great unifier that he promised to be, Biden has greatly divided the nation.
The Convention of States-Trafalgar survey showed nearly 60% of voters say Biden has divided the nation, while 20% say he has united it, and 20% are unsure.
As Mark Meckler, president of the Convention of States, said: “It’s one thing to attack a candidate who is your political opponent. It’s wholly different to attack 50% of the electorate and expect that it will not divide the country.”